:Product: 20020708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  An impulsive M1.6 flare
occurred at 08/0921 UTC, with  SOHO/EIT imagery suggesting a
northeast limb source for this event.  Lesser C- and B-class events
also occurred during the period, but without optical correlations.
Most regions on the visible disk remained little changed, or
declined in size and complexity.  Two new regions were numbered:
Region 28 (S17E42) and Region 29 (S16E52).  Both are small and
simply structured.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated, moderate-level
activity.  Region 19 (S19W44) remains a possible source of isolated
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event, which began at 07/1830, ended today at 08/0620
UTC.  Maximum flux of 22 pfu was observed at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  A chance for isolated
active periods exists for the next two days.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 131
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  012/012-012/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01