:Product: 20020709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Two M-class events (an
M2.3 at 08/2320 UTC, and an M1.0 at 09/0905 UTC) along with a C8.6
event (at 09/0413 UTC) all occurred from an apparent emergent source
near the northwest limb.  Associated activity in this area was
evident in SOHO/EIT imagery and in H-alpha imagery from the IPS
Culgoora observatory.  Other activity included an unusual tenflare
(250 sfu at 09/1858 UTC) that occurred without notable x-ray
enhancement.  However, a possible source was evident in an
impressive backside full-halo CME, seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery at
09/1931 UTC.  New Region 30 (N18E74) rotated into view and was
numbered today.  This large, bipolar region was the likely source of
yesterday's M-class event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Isolated active periods
occurred in apparent response to gradually increasing solar wind
speed and periods of southward IMF.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active conditions may occur late in the period in response
to an expected onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 136
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  135/140/135
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  010/010-008/008-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01