:Product: 20020710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Weak, C-class activity
occurred in Region 25 (S20W03) and Region 30 (N19E63).  Region 19
(S19W70) has been mostly quiescent on its approach toward the west
limb, and appears to be declining in size and complexity.  Region 30
is now the largest active region on the visible disk (areal coverage
about 450 millionths), and appears to have mixed polarity within the
leading penumbra.  Delta spots may become apparent as it rotates
into better view.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 30 is a potential source of M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, under the apparent
influence of weak effects from an extension of the north polar
coronal hole and a small transient passage.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period, then trend toward more active conditions by the end of the
period, under the expected influence of a near-equatorial coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 129
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  008/008-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01