:Product: 20020711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels.  Region 30 (N19E49)
produced a major flare during the period, an impulsive M5/2b flare
occurred at 11/1451 UTC as well as an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at
11/1419 UTC.  Multiple C-class flares from this region were also
observed today.  This region is by far the most complex region seen
on the visible disk.  A beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex, showing
steady penumbral growth.  Region 19 (S19W83) has been in slow decay
as it begins to transit the west limb.  The remaining spotted
regions have been quiescent or in slow decay.  New Region 31
(N10E65) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 30 remains complex enough to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to isolated
unsettled levels at all latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until day two of the
period, where a favorably positioned coronal hole may produce active
conditions.  Day three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 136
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  008/008-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05