:Product: 20020712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2002
. . . .  Corrected Copy . . . . . .  . .
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37)
appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple
minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today.
Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady
growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted
regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for
an isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm
levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a
weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on
the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated
geomagnetic field activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the
geoeffective coronal hole wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 133
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01