:Product: 20020713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 30
produced an M1/2f flare at 13/0008 UTC.  This region also produced
numerous B- and C-class flares with minor discrete radio bursts and
sweeps.  The number of umbrae has doubled today although penumbral
coverage appears to have slightly decayed since yesterday.  Magnetic
structure has changed little today, the beta-gamma-delta
configuration remains evident.  A 20 degree disappearing filament
was observed in the southeast quadrant at approximately 13/1300 UTC.
A partial halo CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery which does not
appear to be earth directed.  Regions 32 (S20W14) and 33 (N08E00)
were assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 30 is still capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two.  Day three may experience isolated active conditions due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 135
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  006/008-008/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05