:Product: 20020714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 30 (N19E12)
produced numerous B- and C-class flares again today.  A slight
growth of penumbral coverage was observed today in white light
analysis.  The dominant intermediate spot continues to show delta
magnetic characteristics along with a weak secondary delta spot just
to the northwest of it.  A re-emergence of a single alpha spot was
seen in Region 28 (S16W40).  Region 29 (S14W29) continues to decay.
New Region 34 (S20E05) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  There is a chance that Region 30 could produce
another major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
day one.  Days two and three may experience periods of active
conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 144
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/010-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01