:Product: 20020715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30
(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a
1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet
(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced
frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated
with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in
its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation
of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)
were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.
Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to
minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also
due to today's X-flare.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     50/10/10
PCAF       Red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 160
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  001/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/012-020/020-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10