:Product: 20020716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 30
(N19W12) produced an M1 X-ray flare at 15/2132 UTC associated with a
460 sfu Tenflare. Region 30 also produced C-class flares during the
period. It continued to grow during the period and is now around
1500 millionths in area. It remained magnetically complex with
multiple magnetic delta configurations within its interior spots. A
full-halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery beginning around
16/1600 UTC. Flare activity in Region 30 may have been the source
for this CME. Region 36 (S07E64) produced isolated subflares during
the period. It is still too close to the east limb for a detailed
analysis, but appeared to be moderate in size and complexity. New
Region 37 (N17E74) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at mostly moderate levels. Region 30 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing another major flare during
the period. Region 36 could produce an isolated M-class flare during
the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geosynchronous orbit at
16/1750 UTC following yesterday's X3/3b flare. The greater than 10
MeV flux at the close of the period was 32 pfu and gradually
increasing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 17 -
18 July in anticipation of a CME passage associated with the X3/3b
flare of 15 July. The shock is expected to arrive around midday
tomorrow. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 19 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to peak on 17 July then slowly decay through the rest of
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/50/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 172
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  180/185/185
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  025/030-020/020-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05