:Product: 20020719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The day's largest event was an
unobserved C8 at 18/2317 UTC. Region 30 (N16W54) continued to
produce numerous flares, but all have been small. The region retains
a degree of magnetic complexity as it encompasses a large field of
bright plage. Region 36 (S06E26) is still impressive in white light
and h-alpha, but was unproductive.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 have the potential for M-class activity.
In addition, LASCO has seen additional backside CMEs that herald the
arrival of an active region on the SE limb. Old Region 17 (S18)
developed as it approached W limb last rotation, and produced one
X-class and 4 M-class events. It's arrival at E limb is imminent.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind has been
turbulent during the past 24 hours, with at least two shocks passing
ACE during the middle part of the period. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began following the first shock at 19/1050 UTC. It
attained a tentative maximum of 13 pfu at 1515 UTC. Proton fluxes
are currently hovering just below 10 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. A CME from
activity on 18 July is expected on 20 July, but is not expected to
have a strong impact on the geomagnetic field. Proton fluxes may
become somewhat enhanced with the shock passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     50/50/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 182
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  180/180/185
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05