:Product: 20020720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An unobserved M1 event was
in progress at the very end  -- 2100 UTC -- of the period, with an
associated Type II sweep. Earlier a C9/1n at 1242UTC from Region 30
(N18W63) occurred. Region 30 has showed some decay in white light
during the period. Region 36 (S07E11) developed in all observables,
growing to 980 millionths in white light and exhibiting a weak delta
in the leader spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 are good candidates for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. High speed
(700 - 900 km/s) solar wind fueled the activity, but no transients
were seen in the plasma data. The IMF had a very small northward
component most of the day, diminishing the impact of the high radial
speed on the magnetosphere. The small proton event at greater than
10 MeV was ended at 19/1535 UTC. The peak flux was 13 pfu at 19/1515
UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels throughout the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 185
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  185/185/180
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05