:Product: 20020722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only infrequent small subflares
occurred. New Region 39 (S12E68), the likely site of the X3 event
late on 20 July, rotated fully into view as a moderate-sized group
with penumbra on both the leader and trailer spots. Limb proximity
hinders magnetic analysis. Other new regions emerging on the disk
today are; 40 (S22E01), 41 (N16E22), and 42 (S18E38). Region 30
(N20W86) is beginning its west limb passage, and Region 36 (S07W15)
remains the most prominent region visible.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30, 36, and 39 are all possible sites for an
isolated event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Nearly steady southward Bz (5 nT) coupled with enhanced
radial speed (500+ km/s), brought intervals of disturbed conditions.
A small greater than 10 MeV proton event, likely related to the X3
on 20 July, began at 22/0655 UTC. The tentative maximum is 26 pfu at
22/1635 UTC. Fluxes remain in excess of 20 pfu now. The energetic
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     60/30/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 190
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  190/190/195
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/40
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05