:Product: 20020724RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Jul 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15E48) produced an M1/1f at 24/1555 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. This region continues to maintain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and has increased in spot count since yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 45 (N04E17) and 46 (N14E22). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 36 (S07W42) and 39 are both capable of producing a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 25 and 26 July. This activity is a result of the X4 event at 23/0035 UTC. The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 July. The proton event currently in progress is likely to continue for the next 24 hours. III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 99/99/99 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jul 208 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 210/210/215 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 030/030-020/020-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/40/30 Minor storm 40/20/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05