:Product: 20020725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 39 (S16E34)
produced a long duration C2 at 25/0921 UTC which was observed in the
SOHO EIT imagery.  Region 39 continues to maintain a magnetic delta
configuration.  Region 36 (S07W54) continues to produce C-class
events and retains its beta-gamma magnetic structure.  A new region
was numbered today as Region 47 (N07W48).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  A major flare is possible from Regions 36 and 39.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  A weak shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 25/1300 UTC.  This shock is believed
related to the full halo CME on 23 July.  The level of disturbance
in the geomagnetic field following the shock was below expectation.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is
still in progress with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025
UTC.  The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible due to the activity over the past several days.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.  The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the next several
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/99/99
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 218
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  220/220/225
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05