:Product: 20020726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 44 (S21E17)
produced five M-class events.  The largest was an M8/2n at 26/2112
UTC.  It also produced an M4/1n at 26/0010 UTC with an associated
250 sfu Tenflare and a long duration M1/Sn at 26/0829 UTC.  This
region has grown significantly and is currently 430 millionths of
white light with 42 spots and a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
This region is located to the southwest of Region 39 (S16E22) which
has an area of 940 millionths of white light and a magnetic delta
configuration.  Three new regions were numbered today as Regions 48
(N18E52), 49 (S06W30) and 50 (S07E36).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 39 and
44.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is still in progress with the
tentative maximum of 28 sfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible as a result of the activity from the past several days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below
threshold within the next 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 242
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  225/225/220
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  010/015-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05