:Product: 20020730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Regions 39
(S14W30), 44 (S20W33), and 50 (S08W19) produced isolated C-class
subflares. Region 39 began to gradually decay and simplify, but
retained a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its leader
spots as well as a delta in its trailer spots. Region 44 also began
to slowly decay, but retained a magnetic delta configuration within
its intermediate spots. Region 50 appeared to stabilize as a E-type
group of moderate size and complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and
44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period.
Region 50 could also produce an isolated M-class flare during the
period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 01 - 02
August. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 227
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  220/220/215
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  010/010-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01