:Product: 20020731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 39
(S15W44) produced an M1/Sb flare at 31/0153 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio burst.  This region continues its gradual
decay but maintains a delta configuration in the leader spot.
Region 50 (S08W32) has shown growth in area and spot count while
maintaining its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Region 44
(S21W49) appears to have been relatively stable in the last 24
hours.  New Region 56 (N04E49) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  M-class activity is expected from Region 39, Region 44 or
Region 50.  An isolated X-class event is possible from Region 39.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A weak shock
was detected at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at
approximately 31/1100 UTC.  The Bz component of the IMF was
northward resulting in little geomagnetic activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on days one and two of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 209
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  205/200/200
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  012/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01