:Product: 20020801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 44 (S21W62)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 01/1707 UTC.  Region 44 appeared to be
relatively stable maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 50 (S08W45) was very active, producing seven C-Class events.
The largest of these events was a C5/Sf flare at 01/0520 UTC.
Region 39(S15W58) continues to show gradual decay and has simplified
to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Two new regions were
numbered today:  Region 57 (S08E02) and Region 58 (S05E72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.   Region 39, Region 44, and Region 50 have
the potential for M-class events.  Region 39 and Region 50 have a
chance of producing a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one period
of minor storm conditions.  A shock passage was observed by the
NASA/ACE spacecraft at 01/0425 UTC and a corresponding 26 nT sudden
impulse was recorded at 01/0511 UTC on the Boulder magnetometer.
This sudden impulse was followed by active to minor storm
conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  A negative polarity coronal hole
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on day two of the
forecast period.  There is a chance of active conditions due to the
effects of the coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    75/65/55
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     20/15/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 193
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  185/180/170
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  010/015-012/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01