:Product: 20020802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 39 (S15W70)
produced an M1/0F event at 02/1053 UTC.  Regions 39, 44 (S21W76),
and 50 (S08W59) all retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration
today.  A new region was numbered today as Region 59 (N14E67).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
an isolated major event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm conditions.  A
shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 01/2220 UTC, resulting
in a sudden impulse of 66 nt at 01/2313 UTC recorded on the Boulder
magnetometer.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Periods of active levels are
possible for August 03-04 from a coronal hole passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    75/65/55
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     20/15/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 180
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  027/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05