:Product: 20020803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S16W83) produced an
impulsive X1 flare and CME off the SW limb at 23/1907Z. Limb
proximity limits our analysis of this region, but it was in a decay
phase over the past few days. Complex Region 44 (S24W88) produced
considerable surging early in the period and is the likely source of
a C6 flare in progress at issue time. Some development in size and
complexity was observed in Region 57 (S08W25) which now exhibits a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 50 (S08W73) continues to maintain
moderate size and complexity, but has been quiet. New Regions 60
(S28W26), and 61 (N08E77) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are still possible from Regions 39 and 44
as they rotate around the west limb. M-class flares are also
possible from Region 50 and developing Region 57. An isolated major
flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Active to
minor storm conditions were observed through the first half of the
period but tapered off to quiet to unsettled after 23/0900Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated high latitude active periods. Preliminary analysis of the
X1 flare and CME off the SW limb late today suggests the ejecta is
not earthbound.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    75/65/55
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     20/15/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 168
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  160/160/160
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  028/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05