:Product: 20020805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C4/Sf at 0517 UTC from Region 57 (S07W53). The Region showed some
growth in the central part of the group and is a magnetic beta-gamma
region due to some weak polarity mixing in a predominantly bipolar
group. New Region 62 (S05W23) emerged on the disk today as a small
simple C-type region. The remaining active regions were quiet,
stable, and largely unchanged. There were indications of a new group
rotating around east limb at N09. A small filament near N00E35
disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 57 over the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods is expected on
the second and third days in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 142
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  007/012-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10