:Product: 20020807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1 flare at 0126 UTC from Region 57 (S09W79). This group
has continued to show surging and plage brightenings as it nears the
west limb. Region 61 (N09E28) showed steady growth during the past
24 hours and has formed a small delta configuration in the central
portion of the region. The group has only been able to produce
subflare level activity so far. Region 63 (N17E65) has rotated into
view as a moderate sized bipolar region and produced a couple
subflares during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE real-time solar wind show a solar sector boundary change
at about 0800 UTC on 07 August.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a slight chance for active
levels during the next 24 hours. Enhanced activity may occur in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Conditions are
expected to be unsettled on day two and quiet to unsettled on the
third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 136
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05