:Product: 20020808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C1.9 flare at 08/0104 UTC.
Region 57 (S08W90) and Region 61 (N08E14) both produced lesser,
subfaint flares during the period.  Most active regions remain
little changed from yesterday.  Region 65 (S10E55) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mainly low for the next three days, with some chance for isolated
M-class flare activity most likely from Region 61, or Region 63
(N17E51).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods are possible during the first day of the
period, due to potential effects from a coronal hole located near
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 135
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01