:Product: 20020809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare at 09/0900 UTC.
Region 61 (N18E00) produced a C1.4/Sf event at 09/0650 UTC.  This
region remains the largest on the visible disk, but now exhibits
reduced penumbral coverage, weakening its prior delta configuration.
New Region 66 (N14E70) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  A small chance for M-class activity still
exists, especially for Region 61.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active periods
occurred in association with a rising trend in solar wind speed and
sustained periods of southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible during the first day of the forecast period, and
again on the third day due to potential high speed stream effects
from a coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 140
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  008/010-005/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01