:Product: 20020810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  No optical reports were
received for the minor C-class flare activity observed throughout
the period.  However, a large filament located near central meridian
at about N30 appeared to dissipate early in the period, in
association with a subsequent CME evident in LASCO C2 imagery at
about 09/2330 UTC.  This CME appears directed largely north of the
ecliptic.  Two new regions rotated into view on the east limb and
were numbered today:  Region 67 (N09E71) and Region 68 (S07E71).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  Region 61 (N08W15) is still a moderately large
region which could produce isolated M-class activity during the
period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels early in
the period, then at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder.
The isolated minor storm period was observed at higher latitudes
during 10/0300-0600 UTC, in probable association with a sustained
period of southward Bz during that time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first day of the
forecast period.  Isolated active periods are possible on day two
and three, due to expected coronal hole effects, or possibly some
flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity described in
section 1A above.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 148
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/010-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01