:Product: 20020811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  The two largest
x-ray flares of the period were optically uncorrelated:  A C9.5
flare at 11/1147 UTC, and a C7.9 flare at 11/1801 UTC.  LASCO
imagery revealed no evident CME activity following the first event,
and was unavailable for the second event, however neither event was
accompanied by any significant CME-related radio emissions.  A
19-degree filament disappearance occurred near N28W51 at about
11/0700, close to the western end of a long filament channel that
extends to the northeast limb.  No CME was evident in available
LASCO imagery following this event.  Regions 61 (N07W28), 66
(N13E42), and newly numbered 69 (S08E77) were all sources of lesser
C-class activity.  Region 61 appears to be undergoing an accelerated
decay in size and complexity.  New Region 69 appears large and
complex in white light, but its limb proximity prevents a detailed
magnetic analysis.  Three other regions were also numbered:  70
(N05W05), 71 (N11E68), and 72 (N18W23).  All appear relatively
simply structured at present.  10cm flux experienced a rapid rise
with the appearance of the new regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, but with a fair chance for isolated M-class
activity over the next three days, primarily due to new Region 69.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  A trend toward elevated
solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz appeared to persist for
most of the day, and may indicate the early influence of expected
high speed stream effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active conditions for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 172
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01