:Product: 20020812RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Aug 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58 (S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed. Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk. It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73 (N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which were unremarkable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 69. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to recurrent coronal hole effects. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period. III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Aug 184 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 015/016-012/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01