:Product: 20020813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 69
(S07E50) produced an M1/1f flare at 13/1904 UTC associated with
minor discrete radio emission. Region 69 showed a minor increase in
penumbral coverage and remained a large, complex spot group with
multiple magnetic delta configurations. Region 66 (N14E16) showed a
minor increase in spots and area with some polarity mixing evident
within its intermediate spots. Minor growth was also observed in
Region 63 (N18W14) and Region 72 (S18W48). Region 58 (S07W89)
produced a few subflares as it crossed the west limb. Two slow
coronal mass ejections (estimated plane of sky velocity about 205
km/sec) occurred during the period. The source for the CMEs appeared
to be beyond the southeast limb. New Region 77 (S18E48) was
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 69 is likely to produce isolated
M-class flares during the period. There is also a slight chance for
a major flare from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels until
13/0600 UTC due to coronal hole effects. Field activity decreased to
quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit may reach
high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 192
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  190/190/195
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01