:Product: 20020814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61
(N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC
associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar
proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the
last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at
14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth
phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated
C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which
now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03)
produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New
Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through
the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region
69.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high
latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary
maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue
into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME
event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this
disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
moderate to high levels during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     90/75/40
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 208
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  210/215/215
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-025/030-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           20/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor storm           25/35/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/01