:Product: 20020820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 69 (S03W44)
produced four M-class events during the period, the largest was an
M5/1n at 20/0140 UTC.  This region continues to maintain its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  An isolated major flare is possible from Region
69.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with major storm
conditions observed at high latitudes
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible due to the activity over the past several days.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 228
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  225/220/220
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  012/014-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05