:Product: 20020821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 69 (S08W58)
produced an X1/1b event at 21/0534 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep.  This region continues to produce the majority of
C-class and M-class events and maintains its beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 69 still posses the potential for an
isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions.  The ACE satellite observed an extended period of
southward Bz in the solar wind from 20/2048-21/1247 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active levels are still
possible as a result of the solar activity from Region 69 over the
past several days.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 220
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  220/215/215
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  034/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  012/015-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10