:Product: 20020822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 69 (S07W71)
produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC.  This event had an
associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep.
This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and
continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at
22/1802 UTC.  Another region was numbered today as Region 86
(S21E29).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 69 remains capable of producing a major
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in
progress.  The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at
22/0940 UTC.  Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340
UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615
UTC.  This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in
response to the M5 event observed today.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/50/40
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 220
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  215/215/210
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  019/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10