:Product: 20020823RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Aug 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. There have been numerous low level M-class events during the period from Regions 69 (S08W85), 83 (S19W15), 85 (S09E16) and 87 (S07E60). The most impressive was an M1/2n at 23/0549 UTC from Region 85 with an associated Type II radio sweep. A Type IV radio sweep was observed among several reported events at 23/1415 UTC. New Region 88 (S22W28) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 69, 83, 85, and 87 all have potential to produce a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0440 UTC ended at 23/0040 UTC. The event reached a maximum of 36 pfu at 22/0940 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 24-25 August as a possible result of the M5 event observed at 22/0157 UTC. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 26 August. III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Aug 225 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/025-015/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/01