:Product: 20020825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S17W41)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M1/Sf at 25/1853 UTC.
Other activity consisted of small C-class flares, most of which
without corresponding optical reports. Regions 85 (S08W09) and 87
(S07E34) remain the largest sunspot groups currently on the disk but
neither produced significant activity during the past day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible in Regions 83, 85, and
87.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event continues in progress--start 24/0140 UTC, 317 pfu peak
24/0835 UTC, and current flux about 30 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
the first day in response to recent flare/CME activity. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 27 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     90/30/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 179
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  170/160/155
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  003/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/020-012/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05