:Product: 20020826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S19W56)
produced two small M-class flares, an M1/Sf at 25/2346 UTC and an
M1/Sf at 26/0103 UTC. In addition, several C-class subflares
occurred in Region 85 (S09W19). The largest was a C4/Sf at 26/0945
UTC. New Region 90 (S03E48) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
shock in the solar wind was observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft at
26/1048 UTC. The most active 3-hour geomagnetic period was 26/1500
to 1800 UTC. This activity is believed to be related to the M5
flare/CME event which occurred on 22 August. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event ended at 26/1335 UTC (start at 24/0140 UTC and 317 pfu
peak at 24/0835 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled over
the next 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 169
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  160/155/150
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  012/015-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05