:Product: 20020827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class X-ray flares
occurred. Regions 83 (S18W71), 85 (S08W37), and 87 (S08E06) remain
the most interesting sunspot groups on the visible disk. New Regions
91 (N06E37) and 92 (S19E04) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in any of Regions
83, 85, or 87.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 161
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05