:Product: 20020828RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Aug 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 90 (S04E20) produced an M4/Sf flare at 28/1859 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 736 km/s. A significant Type four radio sweep and a Tenflare of 930 pfu were also associated with this flare. Region 83 (S18W84), which is currently exiting the disk, produced an M1 flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) at 28/1658 UTC. Region 87 (S08W07) showed growth during the period as a delta magnetic spot became apparent in the southeast portion of the spot group. Region 85 (S08W50) showed a slight growth in penumbral coverage although remained fairly quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 87 has the potential to produce M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug Class M 45/45/45 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Aug 163 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 160/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01