:Product: 20020829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  After further
review of a more comprehensive database set, it appears that the M4
flare that occurred yesterday (no region has been assigned to flare)
at 28/1859 UTC could have originated from several different source
regions.  The most probable source region appears to be from the
northeast limb which corresponds to Region 95 (N07E76), which
rotated onto the visible disk and became a newly numbered region
today.  Region 95 did produce the largest flare today, an impulsive
M3/Sf flare occurring at 29/1252 UTC with an associated 720 pfu
Tenflare.  Proximity to limb hinders any meaningful analysis of this
region at this time as the most recent white-light images indicate
the trailing cluster of spots have yet fully rotated into view.
Three other optically uncorrelated low level M-class flares occurred
today along with multiple C-class flares.  Region 87 (S08W20) showed
steady decay over the period although it retains a weak delta
magnetic structure in the southeast portion of the spot complex.
Despite the region's magnetic structure it only managed to produce
minor activity today.  The remaining active regions were of little
note.  Regions 93 (S16E13) and 94 (S17E67) were also assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 169
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  170/165/155
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01