:Product: 20020902RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Sep 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C2.3 at 02/0248 UTC. An optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare with an associated Type II radio sweep (773 km/s) occurred at 02/0008 UTC. Region 95 (N08E24) has grown in area coverage to 840 millionths and a spot count to 53. However, Region 95 retains it's beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 97 (N13E08) has also shown significant growth in area and spot count in the last 24-hour. One new region was numbered today, Region 102 (N09E65). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 and 97 have M-class potential. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolate active period was observed at 02/1200 UTC due to a 6 hour period of negative Bz. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a small southern coronal hole may begin on day three of the forcast period. III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep Class M 50/50/40 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Sep 174 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 010/010-008/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01