:Product: 20020903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  An optically
uncorrelated M1 flare occurred at 03/0054 UTC.  Region 95 (N08E11)
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and is relative
unchanged from yesterday.  One new region was numbered today, Region
103 (N15E73).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 95 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A weak shock, due to
activity on 30 August, was observed at the L1 position by the
NASA/ACE spacecraft at 03/1710 UTC.   Solar wind velocity reached a
peak around 390 km/s and the IMF had a Bz deflection of 10 nT.
Current Bz is approximately -8 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one of the forecast period due to the weak CME
passage and a recurring coronal hole.  Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high on
day three of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    50/40/40
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 171
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  165/160/170
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01