:Product: 20020904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Reigon 96 (S16E13)
produced a C2.5/Sf flare at 04/1454 UTC.  Region 96 has developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots.  Region 95
(N08W03) has shown some decay in area coverage particularly in the
intermediate spots.  A 16 degree solar filament lifted off the disk
at S35W05.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 95 and 96 have M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storming levels.  A
magnetic storm gradually commenced after 04/0000 UTC and sustained
negative Bz resulted in major storm levels.  A weak transient was
observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately 04/1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active
conditions.  The magnetic storm is expected to diminish early on day
one of the forecast period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
may reach moderate to high levels on day two and three due to
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    45/45/50
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 171
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  165/170/180
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  037/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01