:Product: 20020906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred,
most without corresponding optical reports. Regions 95 (N08W31) and
96 (S16W15) remain the largest sunspot groups on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 95 and 96 could each produce low-level M-class
activity. Old active Region 69 (S08, L=299) is expected to return at
the east limb within the three-day forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux has been slowly increasing over the past 20 hours,
apparently due to a backside event over the northwest limb. Current
proton flux is about 9 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours or so.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 8-9 September in
response to yesterday's long-duration C5 flare and eruptive
filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could cross the 10 pfu
event threshold within the next few hours but a large peak event
flux is not expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 178
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  185/190/200
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  008/010-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05