:Product: 20020908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S07E66)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 08/0143 UTC. This sunspot group is still
near the east limb but appears to be a fairly large, elongated
F-type region. Other regions currently on the disk are relatively
small and magnetically simple. New Regions 106 (N28E50) and 107
(N11E70) were numbered. Region 107 generated a number of subflares
today, the largest being a C4/Sf at 08/1457 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 105 is the most likely source of energetic flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
disturbance which began yesterday has ended. Activity has been at
quiet to unsettled levels since about 08/0600 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton event ended at 08/0145 UTC (start: 07/0440 UTC and 208
pfu peak: 07/1650 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may increase by
the end of the three-day forecast period in response to an extension
of the south polar coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 192
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  200/210/220
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  024/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  010/012-008/008-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05