:Product: 20020910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 105 (S08E42)
produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M2/1n flare
with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps, however no
significant CME was visible in LASCO imagery following the event.
Numerous C-class flares also occurred, with many from Region 105 but
also from Regions 107 (N11E43) and 103 (N15W21).  Region 105 remains
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, while
Regions 103 and 107 have both undergone rapid growth in size and
complexity during the period.  Three new regions were numbered
today:  108 (S23E49), 109 (S08E18), and 110 (N20E18).  All are
presently small and simply structured.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels for the next three days.  A chance for an
isolated major flare event exists for Region 105.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Persistent southward Bz during most of the past 24 hours was
responsible for the elevated periods of activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next 48-72 hours, as an
equatorial extension of the south polar coronal hole rotates though
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 221
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  220/225/225
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  012/015-015/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01