:Product: 20020913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 105 (S08E03)
produced a C1/Sf flare at 12/2337 UTC, which was the largest during
the period.  Even so, it remains the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the visible disk.  It's dominant trailing spot
retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Region 103
(N16W58) showed some decay in penumbral coverage and exhibited no
significant activity today.  Region 107 (N11E03) underwent little
change and was quiescent during the period.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  M-class activity remains possible from
regions 105 and 107.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  An
isolated period of minor storm conditions existed at mid-latitudes
from 13/0600 to 0900 UTC.  Coronal hole high speed stream effects
continued to be the main source of the elevated activity.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded
event threshold at 13/1620 UTC, reached a maximum value of 1070 pfu
at 13/1805 UTC, and fell below threshold at value at 13/1810 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of
the period as the coronal hole high speed stream effects subside.  A
return to quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period.  Greater than 2 MeV flux at
geosynchronous orbit may be elevated into day one of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 206
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  205/200/190
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  009/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/04