:Product: 20020914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Analysis of recent
data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the
materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the
two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18).
Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots
previously included in Region 105.  Region 114 produced the largest
flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of
this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining
indicating continued decay of this region.  Region 105 produced
several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare
occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during
the period.  H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were
simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly
elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day.  The
remaining numbered regions were quiet.  New Region 115 (S03E45) was
also assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole
high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event
threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the
forecast period.  Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 207
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01