:Product: 20020915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
105 (S07W31) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1/Sf
flare which occurred at 15/1738 UTC with associated minor discrete
radio bursts.  Slow decay continues in this region as satellite
spots and penumbral coverage diminish.  Region 114 (S12W15) produced
a single optically correlated flare today, a C1/Sf flare occurring
at 15/1538 UTC.  The delta magnetic class spot seen yesterday is no
longer evident, decay of spot cluster continues.  Region 103
(N16W84) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/0926 UTC and has begun to exit
the visible disk.  New Regions 116 (S09E75) and 117 (N15E05) were
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded event threshold today at 15/1140
UTC (max flux 1620 pfu's at 15/1625 UTC).  Levels remain above event
threshold at the time of this writing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may remain elevated throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 188
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  185/180/180
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01