:Product: 20020917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The most impressive event of
the period was a long duration C8/1f flare and associated CME at
17/0820Z from Region 114 (S11W43). This region has been in gradual
decline, but still maintains moderate complexity. Region 110
(N17W75) was the likely source of the C5 flare at 17/0205Z. A CME
with Type II radio sweep (1000km/s) accompanied this flare. Region
119 (S14E17) continues to develop and produced several minor flares
in the past 24 hours, the largest being a C8/Sn at 17/0921Z. The
largest region on the visible disk is Region 105 (S08W56) at 560
millionths of white light area. This moderately complex region was
relatively quiet, producing occasional subflares. New Region 123
(S16E30) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for an
isolated low M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one active period
between 17/12-15Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at
moderate to high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled. Active periods are likely on day
three in response to today's long duration C8 flare and CME from
Region 114.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 194
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  195/190/190
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  015/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  010/012-010/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10