:Product: 20020918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with several minor C-class
flares observed throughout the period. Region 119 (S14E04)
exhibited considerable growth and was responsible for majority of
the C-class flares. Renewed complexity developed in Region 105
(S09W70) and occasional C-class flares were observed. White light
areal coverage still exceeds 500 millionths in this moderately
complex beta-gamma region. Active Region 114 (S11W57) showed
significant decay over the last 24 hours. New Regions 124 (N03W49)
and 125 (S08E69) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Best chance for an isolated M-class flare is from
developing Region 119 or Region 105 as it approaches the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. The disturbed conditions are due to the elevated
solar wind speed (550 km/s).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled levels with isolated active
periods. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on the latter
half of day one due to the C8 flare and partial halo CME that
occurred early on 17 Sep. Expect conditions to return to unsettled
levels as the expected storm subsides on day two.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 177
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  175/165/160
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  015/020-015/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/25
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           30/30/10
Major-severe storm    20/20/05