:Product: 20020921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class flares
occurred. Region 119 (S14W36) remains the most significant area on
the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 119 is expected to be the most likely source of
energetic flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 159
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01